Hello and welcome to the movie blog of author John DeFrank - FilmZ and Guy Sobriquet Malone - Researcher

Oscar Predictions - 2018


Debated with more than a little bloodletting by the regular gang:
FilmZ and Guy S. Malone, Researcher, and our West Coast Correspondent-the inimitable Babz.
With snide comments and nothing constructive from Serfing Dude, DonSwedanya, Ambrose Woolfinger PhD, Prof. Quincy Wagstaff, Captain Lou HE Albano, and Baron Wolf von Kreiderheim.

Dolby Theatre at the Hollywood & Highland Center
Sunday, March 4, 2018.
ABC TV Network: Red Carpet 6:30PM to 8:00PM, Oscar Telecast 8:00PM to 11:00 (and beyond)

All right, kids, not much has changed since our report a few weeks ago.  Usually, events clarify, and our predictions become more accurate in the months and weeks leading up to the Oscars, and while some frontrunners have emerged, other categories remain as muddy as they looked in November.  It's important to note that we are reporting who we expect to win, not who we want to win.  We will editorialize a bit, but our own selections for the best of 2017 will come in a week or so.

A bit of orientation to the selections below.
THE CATEGORIES appear in all caps and bold.
Who we think "Will Win" appears in Bold.
Who we think "Should Win" follows.
Finally, the rest of the nominees appear in alphabetical order.  In the major categories, we added a few notes.

Here we go:

Down to the wire, The Shape of Water is in the lead with Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri breathing down its neck.  So are we choosing?  On the one hand, artsy voters will go for the fantastic, fabulous (as in fantasy-fable) The Shape of Water, but Guy Malone, Researcher, argues that people only rave about it because they think they should.  Voters who like cool crime drama and sardonically funny dialogue will go for Three Billboards. This will go down to the wire like the La La Land/Moonlight race last year.  Let's hope the results this year are a little less chaotic.

Will Win:
The Shape of Water

Should Win:
Dunkirk - Christopher Nolan's masterpiece re-imagined the war film
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri - The movie you'll always stop on when channel surfing

The Other Nominees:
Call Me By Your Name - Acclaimed art house movie suffers because of Moonlight's win last year
Get Out - Some are picking the original horror/social commentary to surprise
Lady Bird - Crowdpleaser is beloved, but the coming-of-age movie can't beat the big guys this year
Phantom Thread - Gorgeous and well-acted, PTA film is more appreciated than loved--and weird
The Post - Spielberg (cynical) Oscar grab exceeds its grasp

With McDonagh inexplicably omitted from the Directors race and Christopher Nolan unfairly forgotten, we have the opening to honor Del Toro.  Babz, though, thinks his award is well-earned after she read of his engineering of the love scene between Elisa and the Creature in the water-filled bathroom, and the overall fabulous beauty of the film.

Will Win and Should Win: 
Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water)

The Other Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) - the auteur is always respected, rarely loved
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) - a well-earned nod for a first solo outing, NOT a politically-correct nom
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) - Alas, poor Chis, July favorite, March second place
Jordan Peele (Get Out) - another debut for a unique surprise, also NOT a politically correct nom

After the festivals, Sally Hawkins was the front-runner, but then came the precursors ...

Will Win:
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Should Win:
Sally Hawkins (The Shape Of Water) - runner-up Sally deserved Best Supporting Actress in '12 for Blue Jasmine, and in '18 she is left at the altar again.

The Other Nominees:
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) - her publicists should get an award for flogging this to a nomination
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) - beloved actress comes in third for a role that is in her wheelhouse
Meryl Streep (The Post) - the "Honorary Meryl Streep slot"

No real frontrunners emerged until Darkest Hour release, and then Oldman's transformative Churchill raced to the head of the pack.

Will Win and Should Win:
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

The Other Nominees:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name) - talented, charismatic 22-year old is top challenger
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) - excellent performance in a weird movie
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out) - a bit of a surprise, but well-deserved
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) - the great actor probably didn't expect this himself

When the awards season started, it looked like a race between Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf.  Janney is beloved and has kicked butt with the precursors, and her bombastic, over-the-top villain is favored over Metcalf's nuanced perfection.

Will Win:
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Should Win:
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) - nuanced perfection was not showy, but she is the heart of Lady Bird

The Other Nominees:
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) An excellent turn didn't meet enough eyes.
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) Dynamic portrayal just arrived too late to the party
Octavia Spencer (The Shape Of Water) Always good, but this isn't award-worthy

A more competitive category than it might seem on the surface, with Sam Rockwell having won most of the precursors, but at that time he wasn't running against another actor from the same movie (Woody Harrelson), who could split votes.  Or against an octogenarian who saved his film.

Will Win and Should Win:
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) - good-cop/bad cop rolled into one; to be that nasty, that despicable, and yet so sympathetic is one tour-de-force.

The Other Nominees:
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) - Top challenger singlehandedly lifted his film
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) - his best performance ever
Richard Jenkins (The Shape Of Water) - one of three outstanding supporting actors in his film
Christopher Plummer (All The Money In The World) - filled in with aplomb after Spacey scandal

Babz calls this one as the lock of the day for James Ivory, the oldest nominee, aside from Agnes Varda (Faces, Places).   You will remember him from the years of Merchant-Ivory fame (A Room With a View, Remains of the Day, Howards End). In his adaptation, he captures the innermost thoughts of Elio (Timothee Chalamet), according to Babz.

Will Win and Should Win:
James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)

The Other Nominees:
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber (The Disaster Artist)
Screenplay by Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green; story by James Mangold (Logan)
Aaron Sorkin (Molly's Game)
Virgil Williams and Dee Rees (Mudbound)

Guy Malone, Researcher, understands that the critics and Hollywood, in general, are smitten with Get Out, and so is he, but this award is going to Jordan Peele as recognition of his fine work, not because it is the best screenplay. 

Will win:
Jordan Peele (Get Out)

Should Win:
Guillermo Del Toro and Vanessa Taylor; story by Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape Of Water), or
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

The Other Nominees:
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)

Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049) is the most-nominated Cinematographer in the Academy’s 90-year history (18), Rachel Morrison (Mudbound) is the first woman ever nominated in this category, and Hoyte Van Hoytema's achievements in Dunkirk are astounding.  Deakins has been robbed a few too many times; this is a pick of my heart as well as my head.

Should Win and Will Win:
Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)

The Other Nominees:
Bruno Delbonnel (Darkest Hour)
Hoyte Van Hoytema (Dunkirk)
Rachel Morrison (Mudbound)
Dan Lausten (The Shape Of Water)

I, Tonya is a bit of a surprise, considering some of the clunky skating sequences, but a good argument can be made for the rest.  A sliver above all, though, are Dunkirk and Baby Driver.  It's a race to the wire between those two.

Will Win and Should Win:
Lee Smith (Dunkirk)

The Other Nominees:
Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos (Baby Driver)
Tatiana S. Riegel (I, Tonya)
Sidney Wolinsky (The Shape Of Water)
Jon Gregory (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Anyone who has seen the close-ups of Gary Oldman as Churchill has to favor Darkest Hour.

Will Win and Should Win:
Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick (Darkest Hour)

The Other Nominees:
Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard (Victoria & Abdul)
Arjen Tuiten (Wonder)

Well, here's a no-brainer; in a period film about haute couture in 1950s Britain.

Will Win and Should Win:
Mark Bridges (Phantom Thread)

The Other Nominees:
Jacqueline Durran (Beauty And The Beast)
Jacqueline Durran (Darkest Hour)
Luis Sequeira (The Shape Of Water) (Dark Horse)
Consolata Boyle (Victoria & Abdul)

All great candidates, but this is arguably the most stunning aspect of a film that garnered 13 nominations.

Will Win and Should Win:
The Shape Of Water

The Other Nominees:
Beauty And The Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour

There is support for War for the Planet of the Apes, but one film stands above.

Will Win and Should Win:
John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover (Blade Runner 2049)

The Other Nominees:
Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick (Guardians of The Galaxy 2)
Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus (Kong: Skull Island)
Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan, Chris Corbould (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon and Joel Whist (War For The Planet Of The Apes)

Another competitive category; one could make an argument for any of these films, but FilmZ believes the linting, yet haunting melodies of TSoW perfectly capture the mood of the film.

Should Win and Will Win:
Alexandre Desplat (The Shape Of Water)

The Other Nominees:
Hans Zimmer (Dunkirk)
Jonny Greenwood (Phantom Thread)
John Williams (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
Carter Burwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Conventional wisdom says, always go with the song from the blockbuster musical or the one from an animated feature.  This year the category has both.  Coco's song, "Remember Me," is favored; we think the Academy rewards High Jackman's movie.

Will Win:
"This is Me" by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul (The Greatest Showman)

Should Win:
"Remember Me" by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez (Coco)

The Other Nominees:
"Mighty River" by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson (Mudbound)
"Mystery of Love" by Sufjan Stevens (Call Me By Your Name)
"Stand Up for Something" by Diane Warren and Lonnie R. Lynn (aka Common) (Marshall)

Along with Sound Mixing, Dunkirk aural component immerses us in the desperate reality of war.  Baby Driver is a close second.

Should Win and Will Win:
Richard King and Alex Gibson (Dunkirk)

The Other Nominees:
Julian Slater (Baby Driver)
Mark Mangini and Theo Green (Blade Runner 2049)
Nathan Robitaille and Nelson Ferreira (The Shape Of Water)
Matthew Wood and Ren Klyce (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

See comment in Sound Editing above.

Will Win and Should Win:
Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker and Gary A. Rizzo (Dunkirk)

The Other Nominees:
Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin and Mary H. Ellis (Baby Driver)
Ron Bartless, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth (Blade Runner 2049)
Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Glen Gauthier (The Shape Of Water)
David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Stuart Wilson (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

Loving Vincent is the first film done completely in oil paints, Ferdinand is adorable, but it won't overcome Coco.  While the absence of The LEGO Batman Movie is a surprise, the inclusion of Boss Baby is an absolute shocker.

Will Win and Should Win:

Other Nominees:
The Boss Baby - Huh??
The Breadwinner - Could steal it in an upset
Ferdinand - Cute film, perhaps in another year
Loving Vincent - First feature done with oil paints; great idea, middling story

Babz really disappointed us here because we rarely stray beyond the English-speaking world to follow films.  Luckily, we heard so much about Daniela Vega's stunning star turn we can at least make a semi-educated guess.  We have no idea who should will, but we will say ...

Will Win:
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)

The Other Nominees:
The Insult (Lebanon)
Loveless (Russia)
On Body And Soul (Hungary)
The Square (Sweden)

A few weeks ago, we were convinced Last Men in Aleppo would win, but Guy Malone, Researcher has convinced our board to change our vote to honor the oldest Oscar nominee, 89-year old Director Agnes Varda for her cinematic journey through France.  In our collective ignorance, we accede to his expertise:

Will WinFaces Places

The Other Nominees:
Abacus: Small Enough To Jail
Last Men In Aleppo
Strong Island

In these turbulent times of school shootings, it's likely that the Academy will recognize a harrowing, based-on-true-story one.

Will Win:
DeKalb Elementary

The Other Nominees:
The Eleven O'Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All Of Us

Ambrose Woolfinger, Don Swedanya, and Serfing Dude picked this one, basically because they like basketball, and because they offered nothing else except snide political commentary.

Will Win:
Dear Basketball

The Other Nominees:
Garden Party
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes

Captain HE and Baron Kreiderheim were given one thing to do, and they think that Hollywood people can identify with traffic jams.

Will Win: Heaven Is A Traffic Jam On The 405

The Other Nominees:
Edith + Eddie
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop


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